Assessing exposure of heritage buildings to wind-driven rain in the 21st century
Wind-driven rain is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, but while predicted climate changes are well established, it has been until now uncertain how this will manifest in wind-driven rain.
In the research, Orr and his co-authors combine weather generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create a time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070-2099 at eight UK sites. They predict that in the late twenty-first century, rain spells will have higher volumes thus impacting façades across all 8 sites and that damage to buildings will occur more frequently.
Primary researchers involved: Professor Heather Viles, Scott Allan Orr, Historic Environment Scotland (Science/Climate Change team) and the Consarc Design Group
